Pump prices set to rise as Trump tariffs hit Canadian, Mexican oil

U.S. fuel prices are expected to increase due to President Trump's tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil. The tariffs aim to address immigration and drug smuggling issues but may counteract efforts to control inflation, affecting costs for refiners and ultimately consumers.

U.S. consumers will see higher prices at the gas pump from President Donald's Trump 's decision on Saturday to apply tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil, according to analysts and fuel traders.

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What about taxes? New vs Old tax regime: Here's a decoder to help you choose the right one Will you pay more under new tax regime or old? Calculate here The likely hike in fuel prices reflects the double-edged nature of Trump's trade protections which are designed to bolster domestic business and pressure U.S. neighbors to curb illegal immigration and drug smuggling, but which will also run counter to his promises to tackle inflation.

The U.S. imports some 4 million barrels per day of Canadian oil, 70% of which is processed by refiners in the Midwest.

It also imports over 450,000 bpd of Mexican oil, mainly for refiners concentrated around the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Tariffs on those imports mean higher costs for making finished fuels like gasoline, much of which is likely to be passed along to U.S. consumers.

"Expect fuel prices will rise noticeably if oil and refined products are not exempt," GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said in a post on social media.

He told Reuters in a telephone interview the hit to consumers will get worse the longer the tariffs drag on. Artificial Intelligence(AI) Java Programming with ChatGPT: Learn using Generative AI By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Artificial Intelligence(AI) Basics of Generative AI: Unveiling Tomorrows Innovations By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Artificial Intelligence(AI) Generative AI for Dynamic Java Web Applications with ChatGPT By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Artificial Intelligence(AI) Mastering C++ Fundamentals with Generative AI: A Hands-On By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Artificial Intelligence(AI) Master in Python Language Quickly Using the ChatGPT Open AI By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Marketing Performance Marketing for eCommerce Brands By - Zafer Mukeri, Founder- Inara Marketers View Program Office Productivity Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide 2024 By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Finance A2Z Of Money By - elearnmarkets, Financial Education by StockEdge View Program Marketing Modern Marketing Masterclass by Seth Godin By - Seth Godin, Former dot com Business Executive and Best Selling Author View Program Astrology Vastu Shastra Course By - Sachenkumar Rai, Vastu Shashtri View Program Strategy Succession Planning Masterclass By - Nigel Penny, Global Strategy Advisor: NSP Strategy Facilitation Ltd. View Program Data Science SQL for Data Science along with Data Analytics and Data Visualization By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Artificial Intelligence(AI) AI and Analytics based Business Strategy By - Tanusree De, Managing Director- Accenture Technology Lead, Trustworthy AI Center of Excellence: ATCI View Program Web Development A Comprehensive ASP.NET Core MVC 6 Project Guide for 2024 By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Pam Moore By - Pam Moore, Digital Transformation and Social Media Expert View Program Artificial Intelligence(AI) AI-Powered Python Mastery with Tabnine: Boost Your Coding Skills By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Office Productivity Mastering Microsoft Office: Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and 365 By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Marketing Digital marketing - Wordpress Website Development By - Shraddha Somani, Digital Marketing Trainer, Consultant, Strategiest and Subject Matter expert View Program Office Productivity Mastering Google Sheets: Unleash the Power of Excel and Advance Analysis By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Web Development Mastering Full Stack Development: From Frontend to Backend Excellence By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program Finance Financial Literacy i.e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By - CA Rahul Gupta, CA with 10+ years of experience and Accounting Educator View Program Data Science SQL Server Bootcamp 2024: Transform from Beginner to Pro By - Metla Sudha Sekhar, IT Specialist and Developer View Program The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association, which represents U.S. refining companies, said on Saturday it hopes the tariffs are lifted before consumers start to feel the impact.

Trump on Saturday ordered 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on goods from China starting on Tuesday to address a national emergency over fentanyl and illegal aliens entering the U.S., White House officials said.

Energy products from Canada will have only a 10% duty, but Mexican energy imports will be charged the full 25%, the officials told reporters.

Trump had initially planned a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico but cut the Canadian oil tariff in an effort to ease the impact on energy prices, the officials said.

The developments are set to upend a symbiotic oil trade between the U.S. and its neighbors: Many U.S. refineries are geared to churn the type of heavy and medium crude oil grades Canada produces, for example, and Canada's oil output exceeds its current demand.

"Someone is going to get kind of hurt here," Wells Fargo Investment Institute's John LaForge told Reuters.

"The oil in Alberta doesn't have much of an option where it goes, and the refiners in the Midwest don't have much of an option on where they get the feedstock," he said.

Gulf Coast refiners, who unlike Midwest refiners have access to seaborne cargoes, were likely to have an easier time finding replacements for the Mexican crude oil grades.

Companies involved in the wholesale fuel market said they have little choice but to pass on the added cost to consumers, especially as the post-COVID surge in fuel margins has faded away amid oversupply and weakening demand growth.

"We're in a kind of hand to mouth situation here," said Alex Ryan, energy director at Kansas-based Oasis Energy, which operates a travel store and partially owns a fuel retailing convenience store.

Ryan said his team, which also supplies fuel to other markets, is still waiting for feedback from refiners on the estimated cost increase.

"Whatever the cost is, ultimately it ends up in the consumer's lap, and there's nothing we can do about it," Ryan said.

EAST COAST PRICES MAY ALSO RISE East Coast drivers could also feel the crunch.

The region's refining capacity meets just about half the daily fuel demand, and the rest is met mainly by the Colonial Pipeline, which pumps over 100 million barrels of fuel daily from the Gulf Coast.

But that pipeline is almost always full.

In periods of high demand, Irving Oil's St. John's refinery in New Brunswick has been the main swing supplier to the East Coast.

Those imports will be subject to the 10% levy.

The East Coast will either have to bear the additional cost of importing from Canada, or turn to European fuel imports to make up for shortfalls, De Haan said.

At Midwestern pumps, the effect of the tariffs could be more delayed as refiners there have been producing fuel at elevated rates and have also been stockpiling Canadian oil in recent months, analysts said.

Even so, the tariffs are set to raise costs.

"Any way you cut it, you're looking at higher prices," Wells Fargo's LaForge said.

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