India's CPI inflation likely to ease to 5.5% in Nov from 6.2% in Oct: Morgan Stanley
India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to decrease to 5.5% year-on-year in November, down from 6.2% in October, according to Morgan Stanley. This decline is primarily driven by falling food prices and a slowdown in core CPI, which excludes food and fuel. A report by Union Bank of India also predicts a decline in CPI inflation to 5.4%, citing a drop in vege
The report anticipated that the monthly index will register a sequential decline, primarily attributed to falling food prices.
The report also pointed to a deceleration in core CPI, which includes goods and services excluding food and fuel, as a contributing factor.
It said, "We expect CPI inflation to edge downwards to 5.5 pcY in November from 6.2pcY in October, aided by a moderation in food prices, even as core ticks up and fuel continues to decline.
On a sequential basis, we anticipate the index to decline on the back of contracting food prices and a deceleration in core CPI". This easing in inflation comes as a relief for policymakers and consumers, as high food prices have been a major driver of elevated inflation in recent months.
The decline in fuel prices further supports the downward trend, reducing pressure on household budgets and businesses.
The expected moderation in CPI inflation aligns with efforts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain price stability while supporting economic growth.
If inflation trends continue to ease, it could provide the central bank more room to maneuver in its monetary policy decisions.
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The decline is primarily attributed to a seasonal drop in vegetable prices , which surged significantly in the previous months.
The report highlighted that vegetable prices, a major contributor to the CPI spike in October, showed a substantial decline in November.
After recording a 42 per cent year-on-year increase in October--the highest since January 2020--vegetable price inflation is estimated to have dropped to 27 per cent in November, driven largely by a reduction in tomato prices.
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