Petrol costliest in Andhra Pradesh & Kerala; BJP-ruled MP, Bihar close behind

The three state-owned fuel retailers - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) - last week cut petrol and diesel prices by ₹2 a litre each, ending a nearly two-year hiatus in price revision


Petrol costliest in Andhra Pradesh & Kerala; BJP-ruled MP, Bihar close behind

Petrol and diesel prices are the costliest in the country in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala, while it is cheapest in smaller states and UTs like Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Delhi and those in the North East, mainly due to differential in local sales tax or VAT rates, oil industry data showed.

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Also read: Petrol, diesel price cut by up to ₹15.3 in Lakshadweep islands

The three state-owned fuel retailers - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) - last week cut petrol and diesel prices by ₹2 a litre each, ending a nearly two-year hiatus in price revision.

That reduction brought relief to fuel users but rates continue to be above ₹100 a litre mark in some states due to higher Value Added Tax (VAT).

Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP-ruled Andhra Pradesh has the costliest petrol at ₹109.87 a litre, followed by Left Democratic Front (LDF)-ruled Kerala, where a litre of petrol comes for ₹107.54. Congress-run Telangana is close behind with petrol costing ₹107.39 a litre.

BJP-ruled states are not far behind - petrol costs ₹106.45 a litre in Bhopal, ₹105.16 in Patna (BJP in coalition with JD-U), ₹104.86 in Jaipur and ₹104.19 in Mumbai.

Mamata Banerjee's TMC-ruled West Bengal has petrol priced at ₹103.93 a litre.

Other states with over ₹100-a-litre petrol are Odisha (₹101.04 a litre in Bhubaneswar), Tamil Nadu (₹100.73 in Chennai) and Chhattisgarh (₹100.37 in Raipur), industry pricing data showed.

Petrol is the cheapest in Andaman & Nicobar Island where it comes for ₹82 a litre, followed by Silvassa and Daman where it comes for ₹92.38-92.49 a litre.

Other smaller states too have local VAT, leading to cheaper petrol - Delhi (₹94.76 a litre), Panaji (₹95.19), Aizawl (₹93.68) and Guwahati (₹96.12). Most North Eastern states are among the lower-end of the petrol price band.

Diesel prices have almost a similar story with Amaravati in Andhra Pradesh selling the fuel at ₹97.6 a litre, followed by ₹96.41 a litre in Kerala's capital Thiruvananthapuram, ₹95.63 in Hyderabad and ₹93.31 in Raipur.

The fuel is in the ₹92-93 a litre range in BJP-ruled states of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Bihar.

It is also in that range in Odisha and Jharkhand.

Diesel is the cheapest in Andaman & Nicobar Island where it comes for about ₹78 a litre.

Delhi - which has the lowest VAT among metro cities - has diesel priced at ₹87.66 a litre, while in Goa it costs ₹87.76 per litre.

Commenting on the price cut, Goldman Sachs said the net marketing margin of the three oil marketing companies will decline to ₹08-09 a litre from ₹1.7-2.7 a litre.

Morgan Stanley said the price cut "should finally remove a key overhang for fuel retailers".

"The ₹2 per litre price cut (our estimate was for ₹2-3 a litre) brings India's fuel basket to $85 per barrel Brent crude (i.e. breakeven fuel marketing profitability at this crude price). However, the implied integrated fuel margins for retailers will average 30 per cent above mid-cycle considering the strength in refinery margins," it said.

JP Morgan said the effect of the reduction is equivalent to about $3.5 a barrel increase in crude oil prices.

"Although small on headline, a ₹2 per litre cut will reduce oil marketing companies' revenue / EBITDA by about ₹30,000 crore annualised.

" A retail price cut, it said, was expected as the three companies had become highly profitable in the last three quarters and ahead of general elections due in a few weeks.

"That prices have been cut one-time and without any signal that pricing goes back to being crude linked (with periodical revisions) can be seen as a negative for these businesses, in our view.

Yet, the price cut is relatively modest and seems unlikely to be followed by more (at least near term) - crystallising the risk for these companies.

" Emkay Global Financial Services said the price cut translates to a reduction of ₹1.6-1.7 a litre in gross marketing margins.

Also read: Price cut on petrol, diesel deflates OMC stocks

"In our view, this cut will be effective for next 2-2.5 months and once national elections are over, we would return to a normalised margin scenario.

Deepening deregulation with resumption of daily pricing should likely pass any $5-10 a barrel movement in oil prices.

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