UN: Leaders must bridge emissions gap or we slip into climate disaster

The new UN report reveals that despite efforts in renewable energy and EVs, the world remains on course for a 2.6°C temperature rise if national pledges are met, and 3.1°C with current policies. To meet the 1.5°C goal, global emissions need drastic reduction by 2030 and 2035.

New Delhi: The impressive growth in renewable energy capacity, the rising number of electric vehicles (EVs) and other efforts by countries to bend the emissions curve, notwithstanding, the world still is on track for a temperature increase of 2.6° Celcius (C) over pre-industrial levels, that is if all the pledges made by countries in their national climate plans are met, according to a new United Nations (UN) report.

However, if countries persist with current policies, the world will have to contend with a temperature increase of 3.1°C. "We are teetering on a planetary tight rope.

Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster-with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most," said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in an address during the launch of the Emissions Gap Report 2024.

Global emissions have been increasing-from 37.8 billion tonnes in 1990 to 57.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023.

The report finds out that emissions rose by 1.3% in 2023 over 2022, this is far above the average annual rate of 0.8% in the decade preceding the Covid-19 pandemic (2010-2019). The 15th edition of the report comes as countries are preparing their national climate targets, referred to as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement for 2035.

Countries are expected to submit their 2035 NDCs in early 2025.

The report finds that restricting temperature increase to 1.5°C is still possible though given the lost time, the effort will have to be far greater.

Countries will need to collectively reduce 42% of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57%by 2035 to achieve the 1.5°C goal.

"Climate crunch time is here.

We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before-starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges-or the 1.5°C goal will be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit," said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme.

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The report says increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could deliver 27% of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38% in 2035.

Action on forests could deliver about 20%of the potential in both years.

Transitioning away from fossil fuels is key to this effort.

Approximately 68% of current emissions are on account of fossil fuels, driven by the combustion of coal, oil and gas in the energy sector, as well as industrial processes associated with the manufacture of metals, cement and other materials.

The report calls for a minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investment is needed for net-zero-backed by reform of the global financial architecture, strong private sector action and international cooperation.

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